Executive summary

• China’s PC/LCD monitor market recovered modestly in 2024. Industry trackers estimate ~27.0 million unit shipments in China in 2024, driven by stronger consumer/gaming demand and a partial recovery in commercial purchases. Webull

• Independent market research estimates China’s PC monitor market revenue in 2024 at ≈ USD 4.4 billion, implying an average selling price (ASP) broadly in the USD 160–170 range. (This revenue figure is a published market-size estimate and is used here as the baseline for revenue forecasts below.) Cognitive Market Research

• China dominates LCD panel manufacturing globally — estimates put China’s share of LCD production at roughly 72% by 2024, meaning domestic panel supply and policy decisions are central to monitor economics and capacity dynamics.

• The panel-manufacturer landscape continued consolidating in 2024–25 (for example, LG Display’s sale of its Guangzhou LCD facility to CSOT/TCL), which accelerates Chinese consolidation of large-area LCD capacity and affects global pricing and supply flows. Reuters

• IDC and market analysts point to a modest recovery in monitor shipments in 2024 and conservative growth expectations for 2025 — the near-term market is recovery-led but fragile, driven by device refresh cycles, gaming demand and enterprise purchase patterns.

1. 2024 — market size & sales figures (actuals / best-supported estimates)

Shipments (units):

• China PC monitor shipments (2024): ~27.0 million units. (IDC-based industry reporting / press coverage of IDC’s analysis.) Webull

Revenue (market size):

• China PC monitor market revenue (2024): ≈ USD 4.4 billion (published market-size estimate from commercial market research). Using the IDC unit figure, that implies an ASP ≈ USD 163 per monitor (4.4B / 27.0M ≈ 163). Note: ASP is an average across entry, mainstream, gaming and professional segments; gaming/professional displays command materially higher ASPs. Cognitive Market Research+1

Segment highlights (2024):

• Consumer / retail: Recovery in consumer replacement cycles and promotions (shopping festivals) boosted mainstream and budget segments.

• Gaming / enthusiast: Continued growth in gaming monitors — higher ASP and improving refresh-rate/size mix. Industry commentary identifies gaming as a stronger subsegment supporting higher unit and value growth. 显示日报+1

• Commercial / enterprise: Slower, uneven: enterprise refresh and procurement decisions remain cautious in some verticals (government, education, finance), while select pockets (finance, professional content creation) upgraded to higher-resolution/USB-C monitors.

2. Supply-side & industry structure (2024 context)

• Panel supply concentration: Chinese manufacturers (BOE, CSOT/TCL, HKC, etc.) and downstream OEMs/MMs continue to capture the majority of LCD panel capacity and module integration. Analysts estimate China’s share of global LCD production at ~72% in 2024, a decisive structural advantage for domestic monitor supply chains (input cost, lead times, bargaining).

• Consolidation & exits by legacy non-Chinese makers: Moves like LG Display’s sale of an 80% stake in its Guangzhou LCD plant to CSOT signal continued consolidation and refocusing by non-Chinese incumbents toward OLED or high-margin niches; this reshapes capacity and pricing. Reuters

• ASP pressure and segmentation: While panel commoditization keeps pressure on low-end ASPs, faster growth in gaming and USB-C/4K segments lifts overall ASPs modestly. Global demand recovery and feature shifts (HDR, higher refresh, USB-C docking) are key to ASP resiliency. 

3. Market drivers (tailwinds) & headwinds (risks)

Tailwinds

• Device refresh cycles driven by new CPUs/GPUs and the gradual roll-out of AI/“AI-PC” features that prompt enterprise and enthusiast replacements.

• Gaming and content-creation demand: higher ASP segments (high-refresh, ultrawide, 4K, professional color) expand share.

• China’s strong domestic panel capacity — local supply supports competitive pricing and faster new-model introductions.

Risks / headwinds

• Panel oversupply or aggressive capacity expansions could depress prices and margins.

• Geopolitical/tariff risks (U.S.–China relations) and trade measures could change supply chains and increase costs.

• Macroeconomic slowdown or pullback in enterprise IT budgets would weigh on commercial shipments.

• Consolidation and vertical integration (panel makers acquiring module/OEM assets) could intensify price competition for third-party assemblers. Reuters

4. Forecasts (2025–2028) — scenarios & rationale

Method & assumptions: 2024 baseline uses IDC unit figure (~27.0M) and a published (commercial) revenue estimate (~USD 4.4B). Forecasts model three scenarios (Pessimistic / Base / Optimistic) for units and revenues, driven by differing unit CAGRs and ASP growth assumptions:

• Base case: units grow ~+3% p.a., ASP +2% p.a. (steady recovery + modest feature-driven ASP lift).

• Optimistic case: units grow ~+6% p.a., ASP +4% p.a. (strong gaming/pro adoption, enterprise refresh, favorable macro).

• Pessimistic case: units shrink ~1% p.a., ASP flat (soft demand, price pressure).

Forecast table — China PC/LCD monitors (units and revenue)

(All figures rounded to nearest whole number; revenue USD)

(Calculation notes: unit trajectories follow the scenario growth rates; revenues derive from units × ASP where ASP follows the scenario growth assumptions; baseline ASP ~ USD 163.)

Rationale & external context

• Analysts (IDC / DisplayDaily) reported a modest recovery in monitor shipments in 2024 and expect only modest growth in 2025 absent large macro tailwinds — this aligns with the Base scenario.

• Optimistic upside could come from stronger-than-expected gaming monitor adoption, accelerated corporate refresh (AI-enabled PCs), and continued migration to higher-spec monitors (raising ASP).

• Pessimistic outcomes are plausible if panel price competition depresses ASPs or global macro stress weakens replacement cycles.

5. Strategic implications & recommendations

For Chinese OEMs / panel suppliers

1. Focus on higher-value segments — gaming, content-creation and USB-C/4K monitors to protect ASPs. Invest selectively in product features (high-refresh, mini-LED or local-dimming tiers) that justify price premiums. 显示日报+1

2. Leverage vertical integration — use local panel supply advantages to shorten cycles and offer customized models for e-tailers and channel partners. Consolidation (example: CSOT acquiring LG Display assets) increases scale benefits; plan to capture module + panel synergies.

For international brands & ODMs

1. Differentiate on software & ecosystem (OS-level calibration, bundled docking, warranty/service) to offset commoditization pressure.

2. Hedge supply risks — diversify sourcing and maintain strategic inventory where tariffs or geopolitical shifts could interrupt flows.

For channel & retailers

1. Promotions timed to feature-led cycles (new GPU/CPU launches, gaming seasons) and multi-monitor bundles for remote workers.

2. Data-driven assortment — prioritize higher-margin SKUs and value-added services (calibration/extended warranties) as hardware ASP pressure persists.

6. Risks to monitor (priority watchlist)

1. Panel price volatility — capacity moves in China could cause price drops. Monitor Omdia/TrendForce panel price indices and major capacity-announcement news.

2. Policy / trade measures — tariff or export controls could rapidly change cross-border economics.

3. Shift to OLED / advanced displays at scale — while OLED remains a smaller share for mainstream PC monitors today, premium OLED/mini-LED may create competitive pressures in high-end segments over the medium term. Precedence Research